[Reprint] Zhong Wei: next year is better than buying a House to buy stocks to buy shares than fried base _ sniffed its rare fragrance Xiang

Original address: buy stocks than fried base "> Zhong Wei: next year to buy a House than bought shares to buy shares than fried-author: squid genius in consists of the 21st century economic report" hosting's "21st century urban complex Forum 2010 annual meeting" on the 22 November at the Grand opening of Shanghai Star River. Economists, financial Director of the Centre of Beijing Zhong Wei in forums suggested investors, buying a house in 2011 as buying stocks, buy shares than fried Fund. Zhong Wei said, the judgment is because next year's economic growth is only 9% growth as listed companies, so this year is the lack of the real economy and support the performance of listed companies. For China's economic growth forecasts, he believes that China's economy in the short term, medium-term growth rate will decline further growth within landslide, there are two possible long term, one is to continue to decline, one is caught in a social and political economy of misleading, if you cherish the opportunity to meet China's economic growth and long-term stability. The following is a transcript of the Zhong Wei: Hello, this year had the privilege of attending Boao Forum for the 21st century, the Forum gives on China's real estate vision very pessimistic expectations, no one believes that you should believe, then I focused on real estate development, to introduce you our latest thinking and some basic conclusions, in the time available, to report four sections, which focuses on the last part. Summary of the world economy, the United States had no chance in one sentence, but it is creating opportunities, why we say that the United States has no chance? United States overall economic situation can be said to have shaken off the danger list, but have not recovered and the subprime mortgage crisis in October 2008, in November and March of 2009, the beginning of April is the worst of the subprime mortgage crisis, since then the entire developed world economy with a significant recovery in capital market's recovery more obvious to some, the 2009 third-and fourth-quarter and the first and second quarter economic growth in developed countries. We pay attention to what you'll find 2010 third quarter to the next two years in developed countries, economic growth will return to not die than live, I personally tend to think that United States economic growth next year than this year, the United States economic growth next year about 1.8%-2%. So the subprime mortgage crisis after the economic stimulus plan in the Western countries have disappeared, there is no chance, but they create opportunities, what is creating opportunities? we can look at the United States and Japan's economic growth, I personally preferred the United States, Japan is old, Japan's national strength will wane, Europe is getting old, so to France, Germany, United Kingdom raise age of United States will soon become old, those in Europe, the average age of the three major economies are more than 40 years, more than 40 years after the country's economy, innovation capacity, medical, pension burden, then we will find the country's economic development and China and other emerging countries economic and financial developments in the growing gap between the short China's economy is no opportunity, due to the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States can now use fiscal policy and monetary policy to the limit. United States this year's budget deficit probably nearly 10% of GDP, if there is no accident, by 2015, the United States GDP deficit exceeding 100% of 2015 United States medical, pension funds all cash gap occurs, how do you get through the next five years is a headache for the United States. Exchange rate over the past four quarters, the US dollar against major currencies around the world, including the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, as well as emerging countries currency depreciation of 30% above all, in the last two quarters of the depreciation of the dollar index 12%, only two countries currency devaluation of the dollar is not obvious, is that Obama named criticism China and India, and China in the last four quarters the appreciation of the Renminbi against the Academy just less than 3%, India's appreciation to 9% of the monetary policy rate, low exchange rate for United States person? now United States economic growth was 2% growth, unemployment is very bad, just past the month of October, residents of the United States to release a period and inflation-indexed Government bonds, the yield is negative, the ultimate financial and currency, United States people are starting to use notes, so the United States economy in the short term, at least two years must have strong growth is almost impossible, in the next five years will not be able to extricate itself is not aware of. This is I am a United States economic and long-term pessimistic expectations, including the relationship between the United States, China and the United States between the economic and trade relations are increasingly estranged. Overall, our tendency to think that United States is not in the past, the last two quarters United States audio industry for business loan is negative, negative growth of 2%-5%, the United States why create opportunities? through the continuous devaluation of the dollar as their export industries to create opportunities for their own domestic employment opportunities that can successfully do not know, now that the world faced by the United States by creating opportunities brought about by a great risk, is the United States national debt crisis, the subprime mortgage crisis essentially developed countries, particularly in the United States were excessive consumption, also does not settle the debt crisis, the subprime mortgage crisis is the Government Department with its own debt to cover up the residents also has no debt, consumers owe money could not afford, and how to solve this problem now becomes the Government owes the money that the Government owes the money in the future if it is not a United States Government to the breach of contract, the prices of the United States national debt. Current United States 10-year yield 2.6%, 3 years of barely more than 4%, 2010-2015, the United States 30 years Treasury bond yields of about 6%-8%, so we can be sure that at some time in the future, five years or so United States 30 year Treasury bond transaction price will decline, to China, Russia, and other Middle Eastern countries foreign exchange reserves have serious damage to the United States did not have the opportunity to create opportunities. China has the opportunity, but did not cherish the opportunity, the so-called did not cherish the opportunity because of the 2003-2007 experienced a wave of good growth, government lending 2.7 trillion in foreign reserves, government revenue hasCannot drop 8 trillion yuan, over the past 20 years the average growth rate reached 10.4%, financial reform, there are a lot of people still in 03, 03, 04, ABC (2.65,-0.03,-1.12%) restructuring of how many people look cheap sell State-owned banks, we are looking back on it this is true, the start of the end of 2003 and 2005 the banking reform, the 2006 launch of securities reform makes the original China's financial system has to be a big problem, 2003-2007 even global asset price bubble peak, better banking, securities companies become worthless, as foreign investors, United States-American Investment Bank are available through the China Construction Bank (4.67,-0.11,-2.30%) earn a lot. The subprime mortgage crisis, and Chinese people on the floor price and the stock back here, what is wrong? so in the past ten years, up until now is the opportunity of China's economy, the problem is that the Government can seize this opportunity,? we concluded that China's economy in the short term, medium-term growth rate will decline further growth within landslide, there are two possible long term, one is to continue to decline, one is caught in a social and political economy of misleading, if you value the opportunities we can usher in China's economic growth and long-term stability, if not cherish might be a problem, the point from the beginning of the up to now there is no change in the last time we saw a growth rate of decline, this year's economic growth in the first quarter to fourth quarter will be 11%, 10%, 9% and 8% in Q4 of last year was 6%, respectively, 8%, 9%, 10%, so the economic growth this year will be slightly lower than 10%, while the 2011 CPI is 9.5%, but the price is, and the ratio of 2009, the price is the next year and this year than. So we know that next year a lower economic growth, inflation, is there any way to avoid future? Q4 results?, 2003-2007 average economic growth of our 10.4% 2008-2013 may only 9%, 9% as good, this had to be we do not make mistakes in order to achieve this speed, long to say, I'm just saying we have the opportunity, but we can not seize this opportunity, it is now to some of the issues we face. If there is a bright spot, the State Council in 17 th after the policy has two highlights, the first is the eighth largest emerging strategic industry, energy saving and environmental protection in the new generation of information technology, new energy, new materials, high-tech equipment industry presented the eight new industries, and the next five years, these industries accounted for 8% of GDP to reach, ten years to achieve 15% of such specific measurements, it is a bright spot, this eight industry can obtain considerable growth opportunities over the next five years the Chinese people's income multiplier projects �� that is, for the next five years, province, city, Autonomous Region Government may require minimum wage limit is expected to double over the next five years, if the number of enterprises for employees ' pay per year on average reached more than 15%, then the Government for the enterprises will also take into account tax concessions. Therefore emerging strategic industry is the bright spot for the next five years. This is our investment in fixed assets, macro-economic and urban complex? economic growth relies on three, first on investment, the second relies on foreign trade, the third by the consumer. Investment growth has seen, very high, over the next five years if the growth rate of investment in fixed assets per year can be maintained at 20% of it is not easy. Consumption growth is also good, but did not reach the ideal situation. Foreign trade growth is difficult to maintain, the foreign trade growth next year we might only 14%, 15%. From the general pattern of economic growth, investment, growth in foreign trade may drop, only one variable, it is the consumer, in the next five years now, China's consumption for economic growth contribution in about 40% of the global average level of around 60%, if China is to catch up with the global level, it means that in the next five years China's consumer contribution for economic growth will increase 20%, consumption itself will increase by 50%, this is 3-4 trillion yuan every year great opening, consumption growth in the future likely as China's economic growth, this means that our original looked down upon by industry, such as household appliances manufacturing, home equipment, apparel, automotive industry over the next five years are very good. This is what we see economic growth in China and fortunately, we ourselves would like to underline the consumption growth to the Chinese consumer is too low, there are a lot of people wonder land inflation figures must not? I personally think broadly accurate, we do not see the food price increases, we have seen other large-scale industrial production prices declined. This is the food in the currency rate and inflation are not related, we can see from 1996 to 2004 exceeded much inflation is up, but in 2004 to 2010 inflation does not come up. Strangely enough, this is our prices and food prices, the so-called consumer prices, the CPI we describe as "China's pork price", inflation next year than this year, the adjustment for the impact of real estate? I speak several specific factors, the first factor is the growth in consumption means that 80 after, 90 after becoming the consumer after the body is built around the middle of household income, service industry will be very obvious, therefore, urban complex to eat live train services in fact is wrong this year, less money, more expensive. The so-called money less next year is the year of the new credit incremental probably in about 5 trillion, said an increased speed of about 13%-15%, the credit incremental reduce 1.5 trillion, January-October, on real estate loans count about 1 trillion or so, this year probably 1.3 trillion next year on the real estate industry development loans have? I personally not expected to exceed 1 000 billion, i.e. next year for developers from bank credit is 20% this year is going to shrink, workers ' and peasants ' since every bank I am afraid to next year's real estate industry development loans in the compresses. Why money is more expensive? when you look back over the past ten years, or for the past 15 years, we can see that the deposit ratesThe minimum is 1.98%, the lowest interest rate, now 5.31% despite the interest rate, we still understand the current deposits and loans is the subprime mortgage crisis after the emergency State, not the normal state, if the normal one-year deposit rates should 3.5%-4% of the loan interest rate should 7.5% have not reached this level, the credit policy has led to more money, less expensive. Macro-control for real estate industry, the third factor is the third factor is the development of greater risk, uncertainties more policy, for now, although the tax policy has not yet been introduced, but local governments still have a lot of ways to influence real estate development, such as deposit and sales of advance funds to the housing, building, do not allow developers to secretly diverted, this means the failure, this policy will affect developers overall resources scheduling, which is expected to macro, and then to sum up, China has the opportunity, but we are not seize this opportunity and I do not know. The third to report the problem is the capital market, the real estate market although next year after year, also failed, but the stock market had the opportunity, for consumers, I now give the proposal is limited to 2011, rather than to buy a House, buy shares than shares with the Fund, why such a judgement? developed capital markets after the subprime mortgage crisis after demobilization, basically to the original level of the Dow Jones 11000 multiple points, the Hang Seng index also basic back to the original numbers, but the entity has not developed to the level of the subprime mortgage crisis before, if we take the beginning of 2007 and 2010 compared to the end, we will find in early 2007 Shanghai composite index (2884.371,-4.19,-0.15%) more than 3000 points, now less than 3000 points, at the beginning of 2007 and now compared to 2010 China economy of scale in 2007 when at least 60%-70%, so the point of view from the scale can be seen the beginning of 2007 and now compared to the index fell 5%-10% of the total economic output 4 years has increased by 60%-70% of the capital markets, A unit of valuation is no problem, the Bank's earnings is in 10 times more shijinglv in 2 times, 1.5 times, so we say that the Chinese capital market in 2011 is no problem, or I still stick to the original judgment, to the current index, 2500-2800 market is a high-end, if higher than 3000 points above market can look more carefully, if at 2800-3000 points, between the selection of the market in the adjustment, in the market today, we tend to think the market adjustment is complete, the possibility of better than the possibility of going bad. In the high inflation of capital market trend we how to judge the? in the time available we can only jump over it, I am inclined to think that 2011 China's capital market and A share of the market is the lack of the real economy and support the performance of listed companies, because next year's economic growth is only 9% growth as listed companies, so this year is the lack of the real economy and support the performance of listed companies, your excess liquidity, inflation expectations and consumption growth into three main lines of the capital market, which means in the next year inflation defensive industry, new consumption of consumer industries and talk to some of the mobile industry on the market will have better performance, usually from the last ten years of experience, usually some industry low-profile, furniture, household appliances, cars are good, which means that after October 1, to the capital market investment style over the next year as a whole does not significantly change. Next year the comparison on the market, lack of opportunity for industry precisely premises, this is our capital market anticipation enterprises. Financing from the capital of the world next year is almost impossible, it is our opinion on the stock market. So we integrated real estate market's judgement? data is important, we estimate that this year the commercial sales dropped by 10%, the sales amount of basic fairness, that is to say last year sold 9.1 million square meters of the House, this year to sell 8.2, 8.3 million is pretty good, last year's commercial consumption amount is 4.2, 4.3 trillion, probably this year and last year's fair, which means that from this year's national commodity fangjunjia speaking rose by 10% over the next year? next year we give 2011 prejudging, commercial area continued to fall 10%, commercial sales continue to decline by 5%, so the total area of commercial sales next year about 7.5-7.7 million square meters, this level it back to the 2007 annual sales amount in about 3.8-4 trillion, and went back to almost 2007 data, January is back 4 years ago, this is our estimate of the market next year, sales fall 10%, the sales amount fell 5% and 20% growth in investment, this is a short-term, long-term,? we market over a long period of judgment, in stable price rises, why we are China's real estate market of long-term steady price rise made by judge? over the past ten years, real estate sales area each year grew by 18 percent, investment growth in about 38%, the amount of annual growth in sales was probably close to 30%, we estimate the future growth of investment in real estate industry in about 18%-20%, which means that next year 2011 is probably closer to the real estate investment? 6 trillion, 2011 or 2015, real estate investing probably closer to 10 trillion, now under construction area is 37 million square meters, if each year only about 8 million square meters of digestion also means that existing in the construction area is too big for this newly started area 13 million square meters, almost every month a new start to sell per month? 7 million to 8 million, so if there is no accident, by the end of 2011 will be in the building area of nearly 40 million square meters, this volume is very large, real estate development enterprises need to slow down the tempo, as is clear, no matter how do assiduously for two years after the product out of the consumer. The land reserve? land reserves in 2009, the growth is very small, 2010 growth is also very low, so the place is still continuing, the lack of real estate development enterprises this year, the total amount of land reserves is only increased by 2 billion square meters, the total size of a land reserveAlmost 12 million square meters or so. Why we judge believes the future long-term real estate industry is one of stable prices rising industry? we see three factors: monetization, urbanization and population growth. Assume that the future growth of the now maintained at 12%-15%, assuming that the process of urbanization in China than in the past 10 years slowing doubled over the past 10 years the rate of urbanization? annual 1-1.2 percentage, we gave it a bit pessimistic doubled amplified, 0.6 percentage, means that our 2020 urbanization has only just reached 54%, the third hypothesis, if we are a family of the Chinese population, a baby's policy over the next 10 years is not changed, we use the most pessimistic of population projections is 2025-2030 China city, China's total population reached 14.2 million such estimate, we used three types, is the monetization of speed the most pessimistic, urbanization is also the most pessimistic forecasts, the population is also the most pessimistic, so much pessimism resulting premise in about 2020 China's urban population is 7.4-7.5 billion, updated, improved type of demand and urban process of population movements demand ensures that in the next 10 years the city housing demand is 8 million to 10 million sets, i.e. annual residential sales stabilized at around 8 million square metres is very likely that this is a long-term anticipation. But we are not concerned about the long term, we are only concerned about tomorrow, then next year what? I'll give you report not too mature judgment in Boao Forum in early judgments about such, probably in the national day this year after sales area will rapidly increase, sales prices will stabilize, provided that no new regulation, the results to the area before and after sales day celebrations begin growth, it also has a new requirement, so sales and follow up. If we look at the beginning of this year to present the overall development, investment and marketing situation we can understand that some of the features below, this is our last few numbers, this is the third-quarter figures and the outside world views. So in the coming year to one and a half years of the new real estate industry changes? the first change is rapid cooling of residential investment, commercial and Office investment began to heat up, why? if we look at the year to October, the number of residential sales only increased by 7%, the growth rate of growth in sales office area growth of 28%, shops, and more sales area increased by 34%, domestic policy of relatively large, and residential income rate factors, some of the Endowment, and the commercial housing, including office buildings, shops, etc., and not too influenced by other factors, in the past ten years, which also is the commercial housing and office building in the whole real estate development of the specific gravity is declining, as far the development investment devoted to the 70% 25% investment in residential estates, 5% investment in Office buildings, office buildings over the past decade, the most serious investment atrophy, retail investments basically stable, a significant increase in residential investment, but this year is clearly more conducive to non-residential class office building-business room, this is the first feature of the second characteristic is? in the next one and a half years, local governments are facing great financial pressure, don't go on the basis of the good to be rich, 1994 before the tax regime in China? no money Central Government, local governments a lot of money, so before 1994 were central to Shandong, Guangdong and Jiangsu, Shanghai to borrow, tax reform, the Central Government in 1994 became very wealthy, 4 trillion in 2007, this year 8 trillion, double, three and a half years on, so now for the real estate policy adjustment will allow greater government pressure, grassroots government borrows money from banks, local investment and financing platform was cleaned up this year, the norm, supportability housing around 580 million sets, after years to complete the goal and not less than this year, we calculated that other factors were considered, and only consider local government if you complete the supportability of housing supply, additional financial pressures have 8000-1 trillion, you don't give local government money, but also annual spend 8000-1 trillion, land sold out money? next year in the second half of fiscal pressure will be very large, safeguard type housing construction if there is no central and provincial levels to sustain the financial funds of the second half of this year, it began to local governments to build enthusiasm for supportability housing remains high. This will give the residential market have very large uncertainties, we expect comprehensive residential sales in 2010 and the decline of the sales price is exact factors, of which sales decline more obvious, this is the second feature. The third characteristic is also means that the housing market is affected by the impact of policies, especially fiscal policy and credit policy, then the third characteristic is urban complex development in the local governments are more attention, because urban complex development was clearly going to local government regulations, in the process, I personally would prefer over the past decade, residential development bank increases every five years, an order of magnitude, 2000-2005 real estate development and residential development have million of vulnerability to the 2004 and 2005, there must be a billion, up to now if you want to do in big cities in residential development must have 10 million, the amount of funds, significantly improved urban complex, we tend to urban complex not every city can do. We generally believe that only this city population concentration in excess of 120 million people, the city's GDP at least 1 billion, better should be 1500 million, this city for local government wealth should be 150 billion, local government wealth must be available in more than 80 billion, this city can accommodate a large urban complex, the largest city of the complex is the overall architectural planning area in more than 50 million square meters, there is a hotel, offices, shops, pedestrian street, and so on, if you do not have so many economic capacity of the city is no place for urban complex development, this means that all of the prefecture-level city and the County which is fit for urban complex of the city we estimate will not exceed 50, this is the third major change. The fourth is building complex's development, we tend to be two factors are very important, a factor is the expertise, one technique isFunds, for the foreseeable future five years in an urban complex development if the second-tier cities, a project's total investment in 20-50 million, in the first-tier cities, a building complex of the investment scale possible in 100 billion, even as China vanke, etc. in the top 10 large real estate development enterprise in the country at the same engaging in 35 cities in complex development will give these companies a tremendous financial pressure, I always wonder what is Wanda can do, I believe there must be very huge, Wanda's financial pressure, even though Wanda to super-low to profitability but still have pressure, not all do real estate developers are able to successfully transition to do urban complex, because urban complex in addition to sufficient funds to support also must have a very strong expertise, can have a group of businessmen to faithfully follow the urban complex, can form a good cash flow mode. Finally, how can we as urban complex of future development to create space, now the problem has not been particularly good answers, urban complex are basically go public placement Fund, funds, investment planning, good urban complex, or is an urban complex, and then in the market into a Fund, but in China the two roads are very difficult, in bank credit tightening, but in the capital market financing difficulties playing hot money pressure is very large, the use of overseas financing not normally under such constraints, now seems the only urban complex path, this is the present difficulties, the other also provides a lot of data, do not know if you are not interested, not too much to say, this is for future investment in the development of estimates, if possible, I would like to mention fifth, also is to present our hotel, business, shopping and so on are all in an urban complex of institutionalization of late intervention, sales, property management can be difficult, such later intervention-to eventually renting to developers, business area may not be suitable for businesses, in particular the relatively large number of business-specific requirements, nor did the impossible, that is the future we make urban complex financing programmes more personalized, more targeted, can not be around this brand developers in the business of brand urban complex, also form one you capitalized financing models, I, as businesses, particularly in comparison with negotiation capacities, for commercial housing requirements area of relatively high business can urban complex development of early-stage investment, and investment return is for urban complex final goods houses, commercial buildings, this will make the urban complex from the development of early can understand later is about to enter the industry, the business needs of architectural planning what is characterized, which also give real estate developer made a more professional and meticulous financing options and ideas. Before I gave a brief report on the said in the report, the first United States economy is no opportunities, by creating opportunities for financial and monetary policy, if the United States economy over the next five years will not be able to clear recovery in the United States is great, the second Chinese economy short-term adjustment, interim continue to adjust, long-term continuous adjustment, we have the opportunity, but to observe Government, enterprises and citizens are not seize this opportunity, on 2011 we expect lower growth and higher inflation, the total amount of credit contraction next year are obvious liquidity contraction, from the Government level, credit contraction more obvious in this regard, funding is also relatively high price increase, to real estate and mortgage loans are obvious, we expect the next year as a whole new development loans 1 trillion released, add new mortgage loans not exceeding 600 billion, this also means that from the banking system is the new financing accounted for all industry next year real estate development and investment of roughly less than 30%. The third is on the capital market, despite the current market is in the depth adjustment of status, but we think that consumers buying less than trading stocks, stocks to buy, sell bond theme Fund also earn not to fund much. Next year the real estate business from banks, from the capital market, financing from the outside, the fourth is on the real estate market this year commercial area dropped 10%, the sales amount fair next year sales results continue to trend 10%, 5% of the amount of low-consumption, which is the number of expected sales of next residence is clearly commodity houses and office buildings, commercial buildings in the shoe House requires developers professional integration capability and financing capability of stronger, more durable, engaged in urban complex development of enterprises are faced with how to more effectively raise funds, how to more effectively and larger businesses to form strategic alliances. This is our basic view of the real estate industry, we also introduced not all cities are suitable for urban complex, only those individual city GDP size in 1 billion or more, the local revenue in more than 80 million, the population in more than 120 million that have a certain scale of the city can be a fun theme, or to new consumer-themed urban complex, but also to do urban complex, don't go high-end, branded way, if we look at some of the domestic urban complex architectural quality is very general, sales of goods are mid-range sales pace very fast commodities, in General, thank you.